Key development: Lebanon and Israel are sitting down for a third round of talks in Washington today, just days before their ceasefire expires—and Israel just ramped up strikes that killed twelve people.
Diplomacy
Lebanon and Israel are holding their third round of direct talks in Washington as the ceasefire expires this week. This is unprecedented—the two countries haven’t negotiated face-to-face in years, and the stakes are whether Hezbollah disarms and if the truce holds. (Al Jazeera, France24)
Context: The ceasefire came into effect on April 17, but Israeli strikes have killed more than 400 people since then, according to Lebanese authorities. Lebanon is deeply split—some see this as a chance for stability, while Hezbollah’s camp flatly rejects any normalization with Israel. The talks are happening under US mediation.
Sources: Al Jazeera | France24
(Update) Iran issued an ultimatum to the US to accept its new peace plan or the Middle East truce collapses. This comes after Trump rejected earlier proposals and warned the ceasefire was on “life support.” (France24)
Context: Iran’s chief negotiator delivered the warning Tuesday, two months into the war that started with US-Israeli strikes on Iran. Trump had previously rejected Iran’s counterproposals, saying they lacked concessions on its nuclear programme. Iran has now countered with a new plan and a take-it-or-leave-it deadline.
Sources: France24
Military Operations
(Update) Israel killed twelve people in fresh strikes on Lebanon Wednesday, even as diplomats sat down to extend the ceasefire. The attacks are escalating right before the talks. (France24, Al Jazeera)
Context: Wednesday’s strike brought the death toll to twelve. Since the April 17 ceasefire began, Israeli strikes have killed over 400 people in Lebanon, according to Lebanese health authorities. The timing—during active ceasefire extension talks in Washington—underscores the fragility of the truce.
Sources: France24 | Al Jazeera
Saudi Arabia and the UAE allegedly launched secret air strikes on Iran in April after Tehran hit their infrastructure with drones. Neither country has confirmed it, but reports say these were clandestine counterattacks. (France24) [UNCONFIRMED]
Context: The Wall Street Journal and Reuters reported this week that both Gulf states carried out the raids following Iranian drone and missile strikes against their infrastructure. This would mark a major escalation by Gulf states that have historically avoided direct military confrontation with Iran.
Sources: France24
(Update) A ship was just seized off the UAE coast and is being taken to Iranian waters. This is the latest vessel seizure in the Strait of Hormuz conflict. (France24, Euronews)
Context: A UK maritime agency reported the seizure Thursday without naming the vessel. This follows a pattern of ship seizures around the Strait of Hormuz since the war began. Trump and Xi just agreed in Beijing that the Strait must remain open—a key demand as the conflict drags into its third month.
Israel Policy
Netanyahu’s coalition just moved to dissolve parliament and hold early elections in late August, two months ahead of schedule. His fractious coalition appears close to collapse under pressure from ultra-Orthodox parties. (France24) [UNCONFIRMED]
Context: Netanyahu’s Likud party submitted the proposal Wednesday. If it passes—which is expected—Israelis could vote as soon as the third week of August instead of the scheduled October 27 date. This comes as his ruling coalition faces mounting internal pressure during the Iran conflict.
Sources: France24
Regional Actors
Netanyahu’s office claimed he held a “secret” meeting with the UAE president during the war, but the UAE flatly denied it, calling the claim “baseless.” Iran called the alleged visit “unforgivable” and threatened those “colluding with Israel.” (France24, Euronews)
Context: Netanyahu’s office made the claim Wednesday, but the UAE foreign ministry swiftly denied it. Tehran’s threat against countries “colluding with Israel” highlights the sensitivity of Gulf-Israel relations during the Iran conflict. The contradictory statements underscore the delicate regional diplomacy at play.
Economy
Japanese snack maker Calbee is printing 14 products in black-and-white only because the Iran war drove up ink prices. Printing ink shortages are now hitting consumer goods. (Al Jazeera) [UNCONFIRMED]
Context: Calbee announced it’s temporarily switching to monochrome packaging due to lack of printing ink. The Iran conflict has disrupted global supply chains, and this is one of the more unexpected ripple effects—showing how supply chain disruptions are reaching everyday consumer products.
Sources: Al Jazeera
What to watch: The ceasefire expires in days, Iran’s peace ultimatum is on the table, and Israel keeps striking Lebanon even as negotiators talk—something’s got to give.