Key development: Trump just threatened to hit Iran again within days if there’s no deal, and Iran’s already warning they’ll open new fronts if he does.
US Policy
(Update) Trump says he might strike Iran again in the next few days if they don’t make a deal. Iran’s army responded by threatening to open “new fronts” against the US. (France24, France24)
Context: This is a sharp escalation from where things stood yesterday. Trump had paused strikes, but now he’s publicly threatening a “large-scale assault” if Tehran doesn’t come to the table soon. Iran’s not backing down—they’re warning they’ll expand the conflict geographically if the US attacks again. Meanwhile, Iranian authorities held mass public weddings in Tehran for couples who signed up for a state program declaring their readiness to die fighting the US and Israel.
The US and Israel apparently tried to install Ahmadinejad as Iran’s new leader. The plan collapsed and nobody knows where he is now. (Al Jazeera) [UNCONFIRMED]
Context: The New York Times is reporting that the US and Israel hatched what officials called an “audacious plan” to put the former Iranian president back in power. It quickly fell apart, and US officials told the paper they don’t know Ahmadinejad’s current whereabouts. This is a single-source story citing anonymous officials, so treat it cautiously.
Sources: Al Jazeera
Economy
(Update) Iran is now considering slapping tariffs on undersea internet cables that run through the Strait of Hormuz. Could raise connectivity costs and create digital vulnerabilities for Europe. (Euronews)
Context: This is a new specific policy Iran’s floating after they announced broad transit authority over the strait. The cables carry a massive chunk of Europe and Asia’s internet traffic. Some experts think Europe has enough backup bandwidth to survive losing access to those cables, but it would still drive up costs and expose vulnerabilities. Iran’s clearly looking for economic leverage points beyond just oil tankers.
Sources: Euronews
International
Xi told Putin it’s “imperative” to stop the Middle East conflict—but said nothing about Ukraine. The two met in Beijing as Xi complained about “unilateral hegemony.” (Euronews)
Context: The Chinese president welcomed Putin to Beijing on Wednesday and made a point of calling for an end to fighting in the Middle East while staying conspicuously silent on the war Russia’s still waging in Ukraine. Xi framed it as part of his broader complaint that the international situation is “complex and volatile” with American dominance “running rampant.” It’s a clear signal of whose side China’s on.
Sources: Euronews
What to watch: Whether Trump follows through on his threat to strike Iran in the next few days, and whether Tehran actually opens new fronts or is bluffing.