Key development: Trump and Iran’s president just signed a peace deal to end the war—60 days to work out the details, including Iran diluting its uranium in exchange for sanctions relief and a massive reconstruction fund.
Diplomacy
(Update) Trump and Pezeshkian signed the Iran peace deal. Trump signed at Versailles, Pezeshkian in Tehran. Now they’ve got 60 days to nail down the permanent version. (France24, Euronews)
Context: This moves the deal from “scheduled” to “done.” Iran pledges to reopen the Strait of Hormuz immediately, and both sides start talks on the big stuff: Iran diluting its enriched uranium stockpiles in exchange for lifting US sanctions and a $300 billion reconstruction fund. Euronews reports that analysts think Iran came out ahead in the framing—they got legitimacy and economic relief while the US got a ceasefire but no guarantees Tehran won’t rebuild its nuclear program later. The deal will trigger 60 days of further negotiations on a permanent agreement.
(Update) The US disclosed what’s actually in the draft deal. Immediate ceasefire, sanctions relief talks, restoring commercial shipping, and nuclear negotiations. (France24)
Context: Senior US officials ended days of secrecy by releasing the full draft memorandum. Key points: immediate end to hostilities, steps toward lifting US sanctions, reopening shipping lanes (especially the Strait of Hormuz), and negotiations on Iran’s nuclear program. This happened right before the signing ceremony, giving everyone a look at what the two presidents were about to put their names on.
Sources: France24
Economy
(Update) Iran says it’ll charge a “payment for services” fee for the Strait of Hormuz. Iran announced it will treat the waterway like a toll road, charging vessels a service fee. (Al Jazeera)
Context: Iran clarified its position on the Strait after signing the peace deal. Instead of just reopening the shipping lane for free, they’re planning to charge vessels some kind of service fee. No word yet on what that looks like in practice or how the US and other countries will respond, but it’s a new wrinkle in what was supposed to be a straightforward reopening.
Sources: Al Jazeera
(Update) Oil prices dropped again after the signing. Markets are betting the Strait reopens and supply comes back online. (Euronews)
Context: Crude fell further Thursday after Trump and Pezeshkian made the deal official. Traders are pricing in the Strait of Hormuz reopening and Iranian oil flowing again, which would ease the supply crunch that’s been driving prices up during the war. Equity markets had a mixed reaction—some optimism about stability, but uncertainty about what happens in the 60-day negotiation window.
Sources: Euronews
Military Operations
(Update) One Israeli soldier killed in new clashes in Lebanon. Netanyahu’s people say he has no plans to pull back from Lebanon, despite the Iran deal. (Euronews)
Context: Even with the US-Iran ceasefire signed, Israel isn’t backing down in Lebanon. One soldier died and several were wounded in fresh fighting. Officials close to Netanyahu say he’s negotiating with the US but won’t give up Israeli positions in Lebanon. This is a problem because the peace deal assumes everyone steps back, but Israel seems to be playing by different rules.
Sources: Euronews
What to watch: Whether Netanyahu actually pulls troops from Lebanon in the next 60 days—or if this peace deal falls apart before it even gets to the permanent stage.