Key development: Trump says talks with Iran start today, but Iran flatly denies it’s negotiating at all.
Diplomacy
(Update) Trump announced new Iran talks starting today, but Iran immediately said no negotiations are happening. This isn’t the first time Trump has claimed talks were underway after threatening strikes, but Iran’s public rejection is more blunt than usual. (France24, Euronews, Al Jazeera)
Context: Trump said Monday that new negotiations with Iran would begin, and that the US and Israel agreed to pause further strikes if a deal comes together quickly. This follows a weekend call with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who reportedly pushed for de-escalation. Iran’s foreign ministry contradicted Trump directly, saying no talks are taking place. Trump claims Hormuz Strait agreement is achievable, while analysts think a limited deal on reopening the Strait of Hormuz might be possible, but a broader peace agreement is still far off.
Sources: France24 | France24 | France24 | Euronews | Al Jazeera
Hamas says it agreed to disarm under Trump’s plan, but Israel hasn’t said anything yet. That silence matters because Israel’s buy-in is the whole ballgame. (France24)
Context: Trump announced that Hamas agreed to complete disarmament of all armed groups in Gaza, plus Israeli troop withdrawal. Hamas officials confirmed to AFP they reached an agreement on weapons. But there’s been no official response from Israel, which Trump is now publicly pointing to as the missing piece. Israeli sources indicate there will be no withdrawal of Israeli forces without genuine disarmament.
Sources: France24
(Update) The US hit Iran again last week after a multi-day pause, and Egypt got struck for the first time. Pakistan says talks are still alive despite the escalation. (France24)
Context: After pausing strikes for several days, the US resumed attacks on Iran. The strikes expanded to hit Egypt for the first time, raising fears of a wider regional conflict. Gulf states are scrambling to secure shipping routes. Pakistan, which has been involved in mediation efforts, insists diplomatic channels remain open despite the renewed fighting.
Sources: France24
Economy
(Update) A second Qatari gas tanker got hit leaving the Strait of Hormuz, and Qatar just extended force majeure to 24 shipments through September. That’s a lot of missing gas for Europe. (Euronews)
Context: The GasLog Shanghai was struck while exiting the Strait of Hormuz, weeks after the Al Rekayyat was hit in the same area. Italian utility Edison said QatarEnergy extended force majeure—meaning it can’t fulfill contracts due to circumstances beyond its control—to cover 24 total LNG shipments through September. Europe relies heavily on Qatari gas, and these supply disruptions will impact energy markets.
Sources: Euronews
What to watch: Whether Israel responds to Hamas’s disarmament offer, and whether Iran shows up to talks it says don’t exist.