Key development: Iran and Oman are basically done with a deal on shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz, and Trump says we could hear an announcement in days.
Diplomacy
Iran and Oman just settled on new coordinates for the Strait of Hormuz, and Trump says a formal deal could land within days. This would ease a blockade that’s been messing with global shipping and driving the wider conflict. (Al Jazeera, France 24)
Context: This started as a proposal back in July. Now Iran says it’s in the final stage, and Trump’s suggesting an announcement is imminent. That’s a pretty quick move from “maybe” to “basically done.”
Sources: Al Jazeera | France 24
(Update) Israel just hit southern Lebanon again, wounding eight people, even as the US and Rome tried to negotiate a seventh round of talks. The ceasefire’s looking shaky. (Al Jazeera)
Context: Israel’s blaming Hezbollah for breaking the ceasefire. Lebanon says at least one person was killed in these latest attacks, which makes the “talks” feel a bit like theater right now.
Sources: Al Jazeera | France 24
Rights groups are calling the Israeli attack that and that killed Lebanese journalist Amal Khalil a “war crime” after an investigation.
Context: The probe by Human Rights Watch, Amnesty, and The Legal Agenda shows the attack deliberately targeted her and her camerawoman in April. Both Israeli spokespeople and the rights group claim the UN agrees this counts as a war crime. (Al Jazeera, France 24)
Sources: Al Jazeera | France 24
Policy & Leadership
(Update) Netanyahu says Israel won’t pull out of Gaza until Hamas is fully disarmed, which goes against the ceasefire deal Trump just announced. Seems like they’re digging in. (France 24)
Context: Trump promoted a deal for Hamas to disarm, but Bibi videoed himself saying the army stays put until the job is done. That’s a direct contradiction of the terms of the October ceasefire, which was supposed to be the roadmap for withdrawal.
Sources: France 24
(Update) Israel charged a settler, Yinon Levi, for killing activist Awdah Uthman in the West Bank—the first such indictment since October 7, 2023. That’s a big legal shift. (France 24) [UNCONFIRMED]
Context: The killing. The indictment was announced today, and Israeli rights group B’Tselem is confirming it’s a first. If it sticks, it could set precedent for accountability in the occupied territories.
Sources: France 24
Iran’s president says contacting the new supreme leader is “very difficult” — which is huge because the supreme has been out of sight since the US-Israeli strike that killed his father. And he’s defending him from speculation about his wounds. (France 24) [UNCONFIRMED]
Context: This is Iran’s President Pezeshkian openly admitting the leader is not easily reachable, which is a wild thing to say publicly about the Republic religion. There’s rising speculation over Khamenei’s condition, but the president is downplaying that. If contact is this odd, there could be a bit of a power vacuum inside Iran.
Sources: France 24
Regional Tensions
The Houthis launched drones and missiles at Saudi-led coalition targets in Marib and Hadramout provinces today. (Al Jazeera) [UNCONFIRMED]
Context: This is a new escalation in a parallel war that often gets overshadowed. The Houthis are claiming they wanted to hit high-value sites in Yemen. There’s no confirmation on deaths, but this could be expanding the front.
Sources: Al Jazeera
What to watch: Whether Trump gets the Hormuz deal signed and announced—if it does, the blockade could ease, but if Netanyahu’s comments trigger a diplomatic break, we could see the ceasefire collapse completely.