Key development: The UAE has suspended trade with Iran as Trump says no talks are planned and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz shows reduced traffic.
Regional Actors
Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan reportedly invited Iran to join a new Mecca defense pact. If confirmed, it would place Iran in a defense framework led by Saudi Arabia and Turkey. (jpost) [UNCONFIRMED]
Context: The report says the three countries invited Iran to join the newly-established pact. Iran’s Foreign Ministry and the three governments have not officially confirmed the invitation.
Sources: jpost
Pakistan’s army chief is set to visit Tehran on Monday, the same day the US is set to detail what officials have called the toughest sanctions ever on Iran. (mee, thehindu)
Context: Iran’s foreign ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said Field Marshal Asim Munir will visit Tehran on August 24, following a call with Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi on reviving stalled ceasefire talks. The visit coincides with a planned US announcement on new sanctions. Pakistan has sought to balance ties with both Tehran and Washington.
International
The Telegraph reports Iranian hackers shut down a UK power plant for four days, while UK officials say impact was limited to a small-scale generator with no risk to the wider system. (mee, mee) [UNCONFIRMED]
Context: The Telegraph reported Iran-linked hackers shut down a British facility for four days, which would be the first reported successful shutdown of its kind. British officials declined to name the facility citing security concerns. A Department for Energy Security and Net Zero spokesperson said it was a small-scale energy generator with no risk to the wider energy system, and the National Cyber Security Centre reported no outages. The report circulated via Middle East Eye and has not been independently verified by UK officials beyond those statements.
Six EU countries urge a bloc-wide windfall tax on energy firms as oil profits soar due to the Iran war. (mee)
Context: Finance ministers of Germany, Italy, Austria, Poland and Portugal, plus Spain’s economy minister, sent a joint letter to Ireland, which holds the EU presidency, to discuss the levy at next month’s meeting in Dublin. The letter cites refined-product margins exceeding crude price rises and describes one of the biggest supply shocks in decades amid rising living costs.
Sources: mee
US Policy
(Update) Trump says no Iran talks are planned as the UAE has suspended trade with Tehran; Trump insists the Strait of Hormuz remains open despite reduced shipping traffic, while a projectile reportedly struck a vessel and two Iranian missiles reportedly landed in or near UAE waters. (france24)
Context: The UAE trade suspension is a new economic-pressure development not present in prior updates. Trump said Tuesday the Strait remains open despite reduced traffic. Separately, Oman and Iran were reported to be nearing a deal on the waterway as the projectile strike and missile reports emerged.
Sources: france24
Military Operations
Israel struck southern Lebanon, killing 11 people; Israel said it struck Hezbollah infrastructure in response to earlier action against its soldiers, while Lebanese authorities reported the death toll. (bbc)
Context: Israel’s military said the strikes targeted Hezbollah terror infrastructure. Lebanese authorities reported 11 killed.
Sources: bbc
Diplomacy
Syria’s foreign minister says Damascus expects to resume negotiations with Israel and urges a historic opportunity, days after Israel struck a Syrian airbase. (jpost) [UNCONFIRMED]
Context: In a Reuters interview in Damascus on August 22, Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani said Damascus expects to resume negotiations and called on Israel to seize the opportunity, stressing the priority is to halt Israeli attacks. The interview came days after Israel struck the Abu al-Duhur military airfield, which a source told the Post was linked to intelligence about planned Turkish troops and radar at the base. No Israeli response to the negotiation offer has been reported.
Sources: jpost
Inside Iran
Iran appointed ex-IRGC commander Mohsen Rezaee as Secretary of its Supreme National Security Council. (thehindu)
Context: Rezaee, a former head of the IRGC and longtime confidant of Ayatollah Khamenei, was appointed Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, the body that shapes Iran’s defense and nuclear strategy.
Sources: thehindu
Israel Policy
IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir met a top US coordinator to discuss cooperation on Lebanon and Hezbollah. (jpost)
Context: Zamir met the senior US coordinator to promote cooperation on strategy toward Lebanon and Hezbollah. The return of the American coordinator signals efforts to deploy the Lebanese Army and expel Hezbollah from areas in southern Lebanon.
Sources: jpost
What to watch: Whether Pakistan’s army chief visits Tehran on August 24 as announced and how the UAE trade suspension and the anticipated US sanctions announcement affect pressure on Iran and risks in the Strait of Hormuz.