Key development: A vessel was struck in the Strait of Hormuz this week, right as oil shipments through it are recovering toward pre-war levels.
Military Operations
(Update) A vessel was hit by an apparent projectile in the Strait of Hormuz, according to UKMTO. That’s a fresh maritime attack in the waterway just as shipping there was starting to recover. (Middle East Eye)
Context: The UKMTO reported Tuesday that a vessel was hit on Monday evening, but hasn’t released details on the ship or who attacked it. It follows months of attacks on shipping in the strait that had pushed oil traffic down sharply. The incident comes as talks continue over Iran’s proposal to reopen the strait.
Sources: Middle East Eye
Economy
(Update) Oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz are back to almost pre-war levels, and Gulf exporters are finding ways to keep LNG moving too. That’s a big deal because it shows Gulf energy exports are recovering even as formal reopening talks remain unresolved. (Middle East Eye, Euronews)
Context: The Middle East Eye live blog notes shipments have risen nearly to pre-war levels ahead of planned reopening — averaging about 13.2 million barrels per day over the past week, or roughly 77 percent of pre-war levels, even as Iran said it has stepped up attacks on vessels trying to cross the waterway. Euronews adds that LNG traffic through Hormuz is picking up months into the war, though crossing remains risky and some customers still aren’t getting contracted cargoes.
Sources: Middle East Eye | Euronews
US Policy
The US just sanctioned 10 people and entities accused of procuring weapons for Iran. It’s a fresh squeeze on Tehran’s supply chains while the war grinds on. (Middle East Eye)
Context: The Treasury action targets alleged procurement networks, including a China-based representative of Iran’s defence ministry and representatives of firms in Iran, Hong Kong and Pakistan, according to the US Treasury. It’s part of the broader US campaign to cut off Iran’s military imports.
Sources: Middle East Eye
Other
Iran is reportedly offering up to $40,000 bounties to Middle East citizens who capture or kill US soldiers. That’s a direct incentive for attacks on American troops, though it’s a single-source report. [UNCONFIRMED] (Jerusalem Post)
Context: The Jerusalem Post says this isn’t the first time Iran has put a bounty on US troops — in August, the Iranian Army commander-in-chief reportedly did the same. If confirmed, it would escalate threats to US personnel in the region.
Sources: Jerusalem Post
What to watch: Watch whether the Hormuz vessel strike triggers more attacks or delays the strait’s planned reopening.