Key development: The US quietly let Iraq keep flying Iranian pilgrims in while Washington and Jerusalem send mixed signals on the FlyDubai attack: Trump warned Tehran it’ll get hit “very hard” if tied to the copilot who tried to crash a jet bound for Israel, while Israeli PM Netanyahu said it’s too early to blame Iran and warned that any responsible party will “pay a very heavy price.”
US Policy
(Update) The US just granted Iraq the sanctions exemption it wanted for Iranian flights to the holy city. That means Shia pilgrims can still fly between Iran and Iraq’s religious sites even as Washington and Tehran square off. (Middle East Eye)
Context: Iraq had been pushing for this carve-out for a while, and the US has now approved it — a sign that Washington is willing to keep religious travel lanes open despite the military escalation. The exemption allows Iranian airlines, except Mahan Air, to operate 40 daily flights to and from Najaf, reversing last week’s suspension of Iranian flights from the city. This is a live story; the exemption was the outstanding ask, and now it’s been granted.
Sources: Middle East Eye
Trump warned Iran will get hit ‘very hard’ if investigators tie Tehran to the FlyDubai copilot who allegedly tried to crash a plane full of passengers heading to Israel — while Israeli PM Netanyahu says it’s too early to say whether Iran was involved and has warned that any country or group found responsible will ‘pay a very heavy price.’ If a link is found, this turns a scary aviation incident into a potential casus belli. (The Hindu; France 24; BBC) [UNCONFIRMED]
Context: The copilot reportedly stabbed the captain mid-flight, the jet plummeted, and passengers intervened before the plane landed in Saudi Arabia. Investigators are still figuring out the motive — there’s no proof yet connecting Iran, and the Trump threat is a single-source report. Netanyahu has alleged the co-pilot underwent “Islamist radical indoctrination” but has not provided evidence. Treat the threat as rhetoric until more comes out.
Economy
The G7 is tapping strategic reserves for up to 100 million barrels of oil and diesel, according to Macron. That’s the kind of move meant to keep the war from sending fuel prices into orbit and spooking the global economy. (Middle East Eye)
Context: With the US-Iran conflict threatening Gulf supply routes and the Strait of Hormuz crisis choking supplies, markets have been jittery. The release will run over four months, with diesel frontloaded to hit pump prices quickly, and G7 members agreed not to ban diesel exports within the group. Releasing reserves is the G7’s way of pumping the brakes on price spikes — though whether 100 million barrels is enough depends on how long the war drags on.
Sources: Middle East Eye, Al Jazeera
What to watch: Whether any evidence actually links Iran to the copilot attack — and if Trump follows through on that “very hard” threat, the G7 oil release might not be enough to steady markets.