Key development: The US completed its troop withdrawal from Iraq on September 30, ending a two-decade military presence, and Iran is framing it as a win for its “axis of resistance.”
US Policy & Iraq
The US has officially completed its withdrawal of troops from Iraq. Iran is framing this as a major victory for its network of allied militias across the region. (The Hindu)
Context: American forces exited Iraq on September 30, ending a two-decade military presence that began with the 2003 invasion. While the BBC and France24 characterize the mission as a 12-year anti-ISIS coalition operation, The Hindu frames it as a two-decade presence. For Iran-backed Shia armed groups that spent years clashing with US troops, this is being celebrated as a “historic victory” — especially while Washington is actively at war with Iran. The withdrawal leaves a power vacuum that Iran-aligned militias, now formally integrated into Iraq’s military structure as the Popular Mobilisation Forces, are positioned to fill.
Sources: The Hindu
Regional Actors
The Houthis captured a stretch of Yemen’s strategic coastline in September — but Saudi-backed forces have since retaken Mocha and launched a major counter-offensive. The rapid escalation is reshaping the Red Sea security landscape. (BBC, MEE)
Context: The Houthis’ September advance gave them control over critical Red Sea territory near the Bab al-Mandeb Strait — their most impressive military coup in years, according to the BBC. However, as of October 5, Saudi-backed Yemeni forces have retaken the strategic port city of Mocha and announced a “strategic offensive” toward Sanaa, with the Saudi-led coalition conducting over 1,000 strikes. The Makkah Alliance (Pakistan, Turkey, Saudi Arabia) has activated collective deterrence measures. The fluid situation means control of the Red Sea coastline remains contested, with implications for shipping security and Iran’s regional posture.
Economy
Iran may be secretly charging ships a toll to move oil through the Strait of Hormuz. Crude exports bypassing the strait surged in September, but prices are still high — and a hidden fee could be why. (Al Jazeera)
Context: If confirmed, this would represent a new revenue stream for Iran while it’s under military pressure, and another way to squeeze global oil markets. The report raises questions about how Iran is monetizing its control over one of the world’s most critical shipping chokepoints. However, the claim remains speculative — the Al Jazeera report poses it as a question rather than a confirmed finding.
Sources: Al Jazeera
What to watch: Whether Iran-backed militias in Iraq start testing the power vacuum left by the US withdrawal, and whether the Saudi-backed counter-offensive in Yemen succeeds in rolling back Houthi gains — or whether the Houthis retain enough coastal territory to disrupt Red Sea shipping.