Key development: A third ship caught fire near the Strait of Hormuz — Iran says its tracking was switched off — two days after two cargo ships sank in the same stretch of water.
Military Operations
(Update) A third ship is burning near the Strait of Hormuz, two days after two cargo ships went down in the same area. Iran says it found the tanker ablaze after it sailed into a prohibited zone with its tracking systems disabled. Three vessels in three days is a lot even for that waterway. (Euronews)
Context: Sources differ on the GFS Pride: BBC reports it was hit by a projectile, while Euronews reports it sank following a fire; Euronews reports that the cargo ship Cape Dao was hit by a projectile. Now an unnamed tanker has been found on fire. Iran’s account — tracking off, prohibited zone — puts the blame on the ship’s own behavior rather than on an attack. Iran’s navy did not say what caused the tanker fire or who was responsible.
Sources: Euronews
Rafael’s CEO says Israel finished the Iran war with more interceptors than it started with. The company’s new Arkansas plant is supposed to turn out 1,000 Tamir interceptors a year, as countries scramble to increase interceptor stockpiles. (Jerusalem Post)
Context: Building the capacity in Arkansas adds a production site outside the immediate theater, as countries scramble to increase interceptor stockpiles after the war.
Sources: Jerusalem Post
Diplomacy
Israel and Iran both showed up to a summit in Baku. Euronews reports a rare confidence-building meeting, while Jerusalem Post and Middle East Eye report Iranian and other delegations walked out as Israeli President Herzog spoke. Azerbaijan is selling itself as a neutral connecting hub, and direct contact between the two has otherwise been close to zero. (Euronews)
Context: Direct contact between Israel and Iran has been close to zero. Azerbaijan has real ties to both: it’s a major Israeli arms and oil partner, and it shares a border and a long history with Iran. That’s what makes it one of the few places that could host this.
Sources: Euronews, Jerusalem Post, Middle East Eye
Iraqi Kurdish leaders are floating a peace process between Iran and Iranian Kurdish opposition groups. If it goes anywhere, it’d be the first real channel between Tehran and groups it’s been fighting for decades. (Middle East Eye) [UNCONFIRMED]
Context: Iran has long treated its Kurdish regions as a security problem and has struck Kurdish groups based across the border in Iraq. This is a suggestion coming from the Iraqi Kurdish side — not an agreement, and no sign yet that Tehran has bought in.
Sources: Middle East Eye
What to watch: Whether a fourth ship gets hit near Hormuz, and whether the Baku talks turn into anything more than a photo op.