Key development: The US and Iran kicked off a new round of talks in Switzerland with 60 days to nail down details on Iran’s nuclear program, but Israel’s already throwing a wrench in things by refusing to pull out of southern Lebanon.
Diplomacy
(Update) US and Iran started talks in Switzerland to finalize last week’s deal. They’ve got 60 days to sort out what happens to Iran’s nuclear program, but fighting in Lebanon is already messing with the ceasefire. (France24)
Context: This is the new round of negotiations to lock in the Memorandum of Understanding signed last week. The 60-day clock is ticking to resolve the hard stuff—Iran’s uranium stockpiles and nuclear ambitions. Problem is, Israel and Hezbollah keep shooting at each other in Lebanon, and neither of them signed the agreement. Iran says Lebanon is now the “main topic” at the talks.
(Update) Israel and Lebanon are hashing out a plan in Washington to hand some southern territory back to the Lebanese army, but Israel’s defence minister says Israeli forces aren’t leaving. Israeli and Lebanese negotiators are discussing a US-backed pilot project for territorial transfer, while Defence Minister Israel Katz publicly declared Wednesday that Israel won’t withdraw from south Lebanon under any circumstances, including US pressure. (France24)
Context: This is a direct contradiction at the heart of the Lebanon issue. Israeli and Lebanese negotiators in DC are working on a concrete proposal where Israeli troops would transfer control of some areas in southern Lebanon to the Lebanese Armed Forces—a specific mechanism that just emerged from the talks. But at the same time, Defence Minister Katz publicly stated Israel won’t withdraw under any circumstances. This hardline position undercuts the Washington talks happening simultaneously where Israeli negotiators are discussing exactly that kind of withdrawal.
Pakistan is playing mediator between the US and Iran and sees a chance to cash in. If the deal holds, they’re eyeing trade routes, energy access, and a bigger role in the region. (Al Jazeera) [UNCONFIRMED]
Context: Pakistan helped broker the US-Iran talks and now sees strategic upside if the thaw continues. They’re hoping for improved trade relationships, access to Iranian energy, and renewed relevance as a regional diplomatic player. Pakistan’s foreign ministry said technical discussions between the US and Iran will resume next week.
Sources: Al Jazeera
Economy
(Update) Iran and Oman are formally looking at charging “maritime service fees” for ships going through the Strait of Hormuz. They just announced a joint working group to figure out the details, despite US opposition. (France24)
Context: This moved from Trump’s threat to actual policy planning. Iran and Oman announced Tuesday they’ll examine what they’re calling maritime service fees through a bilateral working group. The US has opposed any toll system for the strait, which handles about a fifth of global oil traffic.
Sources: France24
(Update) Oil prices dropped below $74 a barrel for the first time since the Iran war started. Markets are betting the conflict risk is basically over. (Euronews)
Context: Brent crude fell below $74 on Wednesday, the lowest since late February when the war began. Investors are pricing out the geopolitical risk premium that had pushed energy prices higher during the conflict. This is a concrete signal that markets think the worst is behind us.
Sources: Euronews
Japan might send its navy to help clear mines from the Strait of Hormuz. They’re considering joining the demining effort now that there’s a ceasefire. (Al Jazeera) [UNCONFIRMED]
Context: Japan is weighing whether to deploy naval forces to help with mine clearance operations in the Strait of Hormuz following the US-Iran ceasefire. This would be part of international efforts to make the waterway safe for commercial shipping again.
Sources: Al Jazeera
US Policy
The Senate passed a resolution limiting Trump’s war powers on Iran, with four Republicans crossing over. It doesn’t force his hand but it’s a symbolic check. (Al Jazeera) [UNCONFIRMED]
Context: The Senate approved an Iran war powers resolution with bipartisan support—four Republicans voted with Democrats to pass it. The measure is largely symbolic since it doesn’t have the force of law, but it signals that Congress wants a say in any future military action against Iran.
Sources: Al Jazeera
International
NATO’s secretary general met with Trump to smooth things over before next month’s summit. Relations are tense after the US slashed its European defence commitments during the Iran war. (Euronews) [UNCONFIRMED]
Context: Secretary General Mark Rutte sat down with Trump ahead of what could be a contentious NATO leaders’ summit in July. The Trump administration and Europe have been at odds over the Iran war, with the US drastically cutting back its defence presence in Europe. Rutte is trying to prevent the summit from turning into a public fight.
Sources: Euronews
What to watch: Whether the contradiction between Israel’s negotiators discussing territorial transfers in Washington and Defence Minister Katz’s flat refusal to withdraw blows up the US-Iran talks before the 60-day deadline.