Key development: Oil just fell back to where it was before the war started—lowest price since late February.
Economy
(Update) Oil prices dropped to pre-war levels for the first time since the conflict began. Brent crude hit its lowest point since February 27, right before everything kicked off. (Al Jazeera)
Context: This marks a concrete milestone—prices had dropped below $74 yesterday, but now they’ve actually fallen all the way back to where they were before the war. That suggests markets think Middle East supply disruptions are behind us, at least for now.
Sources: Al Jazeera
(Update) Iran’s Revolutionary Guards told ships to stay out of Oman’s new shipping corridor through the Strait of Hormuz, while Rubio told Gulf allies the US won’t tolerate transit fees. The IRGC is calling any vessel that uses Oman’s temporary corridor illegal. Meanwhile, Rubio drew a hard line at a GCC meeting—basically saying don’t even try to dress up tolls as something else. (Euronews)
Context: Oman announced a temporary corridor yesterday to ease the shipping bottleneck. Now Iran has formally rejected it and the IRGC is warning ships off. Meanwhile, Rubio drew a hard line at a GCC meeting—basically saying don’t even try to dress up tolls as something else. Both sides just staked out concrete positions that directly contradict each other.
Sources: Euronews
Diplomacy
(Update) US and Iran will hold technical talks in Switzerland on June 29 or 30, Rubio says. This pins down a specific date after earlier vague talk about “late June.” (France24)
Context: Rubio announced the date during his Gulf tour. These are the lower-level technical talks, not full negotiations—think logistics and mechanics rather than big political breakthroughs. Israel’s defense minister also said today that Israel won’t pull out of south Lebanon even if Washington pushes for it.
Sources: France24
[UNCONFIRMED] (Update) Iranian negotiator Ghalibaf denies unfrozen funds will buy US goods, contradicting Washington’s claim. The US administration said unfrozen funds will be spent on produce from American farmers, but Iran’s parliamentary speaker rejected this. (Al Jazeera)
Context: This represents a direct contradiction between the two sides on what they agreed to regarding unfrozen Iranian funds. The US has been publicly stating the funds will go toward American agricultural purchases, but Iran’s chief negotiator is now saying that’s not the case.
Sources: Al Jazeera
What to watch: Whether any ships actually try to use Oman’s corridor now that Iran has explicitly warned them off.