Key development: Trump publicly said the US will hit Iran’s Pickaxe Mountain nuclear facility “pretty soon,” naming a specific target for the first time.
Military Operations
(Update) Trump said the US will bomb Iran’s Pickaxe Mountain nuclear complex “pretty soon.” This is the first time he’s publicly named a specific next target—an underground enrichment facility. (France24)
Context: Trump made the announcement Tuesday, saying the US is “far from finished” with Iran. Pickaxe Mountain is buried deep underground and believed to be a fortified enrichment site. This marks a shift from general strikes to publicly telegraphing specific nuclear infrastructure targets.
(Update) The Pentagon says the Iran war has cost $37.5 billion and they need another $67 billion. Defense Secretary Hegseth got grilled by both parties in the Senate about the strategy. (France24, Al Jazeera)
Context: Hegseth testified Tuesday asking for “urgent” additional funding to replenish weapons stockpiles. The $37.5 billion figure is the first official accounting of what’s been spent. Senators from both parties demanded explanations about how the military plans to actually win or end the war. The US has now launched 11 consecutive nights of strikes.
Sources: France24 | France24 | Al Jazeera
(Update) A fourth US service member died in Iraq during a controlled detonation of an unexploded Iranian drone. Another was wounded in the same incident Saturday. (France24)
Context: This happened in northern Iraq while clearing unexploded ordnance from a downed Iranian drone. It follows the killing of two US troops in Jordan late Friday, bringing total US combat deaths to at least four. Jordan summoned Iran’s top envoy Sunday to protest Tehran’s attacks on Jordanian territory.
(Update) Trump said the US has no interest in continuing Iran talks. That’s a shift from the diplomatic track that was still technically open. (Euronews)
Context: The US is in its 11th consecutive night of strikes on Iran. Pakistan had been trying to salvage an interim deal between the two countries, but Trump’s statement effectively closes that door for now. Tehran has expanded its offensive against Gulf states.
Sources: Euronews
Regional Actors
(Update) Lebanon’s army deployed into a pilot zone in southern Lebanon as part of the US-brokered deal with Israel. Israeli troops fired warning shots near the Lebanese soldiers. (Al Jazeera, France24)
Context: The Lebanese military entered Zawtar al-Gharbiya as the framework deal starts getting implemented on the ground. Lebanon’s PM visited the area Tuesday and said Beirut is working toward “complete Israeli withdrawal” from occupied areas. Israel insists Hezbollah be disarmed before it pulls out fully, which Lebanon’s army probably can’t accomplish. Israel said the shots were just warnings.
Sources: Al Jazeera | France24 | France24
(Update) Houthis shut down the Bab al-Mandeb strait, putting 6 million barrels per day of oil to Asia at risk. The question now is whether the Suez can handle the rerouted traffic. (Al Jazeera)
Context: About 6 million barrels of crude that normally pass through the strait to Asian markets are now blocked. Shippers will have to reroute around Africa or try the Suez Canal, which may not have capacity for all that volume. This is a major escalation in how the conflict is affecting global energy flows.
Sources: Al Jazeera
Diplomacy
(Update) Trump told Lebanon’s president he’d help the country “a lot” as Lebanon tries to disarm Hezbollah. Israeli PM Netanyahu apparently sees this as a slap in the face. (France24)
Context: Lebanese President Joseph Aoun met with Trump Tuesday in the first official visit by a Lebanese head of state since 2009. Aoun is seeking US backing for the fragile effort to disarm Hezbollah and make peace with Israel. Trump’s public support for Lebanon is being read as undercutting Netanyahu, who wants Hezbollah disarmed before Israel withdraws from southern Lebanon.
Sources: France24
International
(Update) Iran threatened Bulgaria over a proposal to let the US deploy aerial refueling aircraft there. This opens a new front beyond the Gulf. (Euronews)
Context: Bulgaria’s government proposed temporarily deploying up to eight US aerial refueling tankers at Bezmer Air Base in southeastern Bulgaria. Iran issued a warning in response, marking the first time Tehran has directly threatened a European country over US military positioning related to the conflict.
Sources: Euronews
What to watch: Whether Trump actually follows through on the Pickaxe Mountain strike and how quickly—he’s already named the target publicly, which is unusual.