Key development: The US signed a nuclear deal with Saudi Arabia that lets them enrich uranium, and Trump said it’s contingent on Saudi Arabia normalizing relations with Israel.
Diplomacy
The US just signed a nuclear deal with Saudi Arabia that allows them to enrich uranium. Trump says it only goes forward if the Saudis normalize relations with Israel. (France24, Euronews)
Context: Energy Secretary Chris Wright and Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman signed the civilian nuclear cooperation deal Wednesday. There’s been years of back-and-forth on this, even under Biden, as part of a broader push to get Saudi Arabia to recognize Israel. That effort collapsed after October 7th. Washington says the deal includes strict safeguards against weapons development, but it’s a major shift to let the Saudis enrich their own fuel.
Iraq’s prime minister is in Tehran right after meeting with Trump. Baghdad’s trying to walk a tightrope between Washington and Iran. (Al Jazeera)
Context: Iraqi PM Ali al-Zaid had a high-profile sit-down with Trump and now he’s heading to Iran. Iraq has deep ties with both countries and is caught in the middle as the US and Iran trade strikes. This trip signals Baghdad’s attempt to maintain relationships on both sides even as tensions spike.
Sources: Al Jazeera
Military Operations
(Update) Iran hit US bases in Jordan and Kuwait after the twelfth straight night of American airstrikes. Tehran claims they destroyed several military assets. (France24)
Context: The strikes keep escalating on both sides. Iran’s retaliation came the same day Houthis attacked two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea. Trump responded by threatening “major military punishment” against both Iran and the Houthis for any further attacks. It’s unclear what Washington’s endgame is beyond ramping up the pressure.
Sources: France24
(Update) Trump threatened to destroy an Iranian bridge or power plant for every attack on ships in the Strait of Hormuz. It’s a new escalation in rhetoric as strikes continue. (France24)
Context: Trump issued the threat Wednesday as the US and Iran kept trading blows. He’s tying infrastructure destruction directly to shipping attacks now, going beyond the airstrikes the US has been conducting. Diplomatic efforts to dial things down aren’t going anywhere.
Sources: France24
Houthis hit two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea. They say the ships violated their blockade of the Bab el-Mandeb strait. (Euronews, France24)
Context: The Houthis claimed responsibility for striking the tankers, expanding the conflict beyond just US and Iranian targets. Trump warned both Iran and the Houthis would face “major military punishment” for further attacks. This is pulling Saudi Arabia more directly into the fighting.
Regional Actors
(Update) Israeli troops fired warning shots near Lebanese soldiers deploying to new “safe zones” in southern Lebanon. First friction between the forces since Lebanon started taking over. (France24)
Context: Lebanon’s army is now operating in three villages (Froun, Srifa, and Zawtar al-Gharbiya) under a US-backed framework meant to let Israel pull back. The warning shots Tuesday were the first reported incident between Israeli and Lebanese forces since the deployment started. Israel says it won’t fully withdraw until Hezbollah is disarmed, which Lebanon’s army probably can’t pull off.
Economy
(Update) Oil hit $100 a barrel for the first time since May as Iran’s blockade drags on. Gulf producers are spending billions on pipelines to bypass the Strait of Hormuz. (Euronews)
Context: The price spike is a direct result of Iran’s control over the strait. Gulf oil producers are now racing to build alternative export routes that don’t rely on Hormuz at all. That infrastructure will take time and money, but the blockade has made it a priority.
Sources: Euronews
(Update) Thai sailors are suing the owners of the cargo ship that got hit in the Strait of Hormuz. Legal fallout from the attacks is starting. (Al Jazeera)
Context: This follows the earlier attack on their vessel. The lawsuit is the first concrete legal action we’ve seen from sailors caught up in the Hormuz attacks. It signals there’s going to be a wave of liability claims as the maritime crisis continues.
Sources: Al Jazeera
International
(Update) The European Central Bank held rates at 2.25% but kept another hike on the table for fall. Renewed fighting in the Middle East is pushing energy prices back up. (Euronews) [UNCONFIRMED]
Context: The ECB paused Thursday after hiking rates for the first time in three years back in June. Inflation had been easing, but the Iran war is changing the calculus by driving up oil prices again. Policymakers are keeping their options open for another increase in autumn if energy costs keep climbing.
Sources: Euronews
(Update) NATO told Bulgaria it’ll defend them if Iran follows through on threats. Tehran warned Bulgaria not to host US aircraft for strikes. (Euronews) [UNCONFIRMED]
Context: Iran threatened Bulgaria after Sofia said it would host American military planes. NATO Colonel Martin O’Donnell said the alliance is ready to step in if Bulgaria comes under attack. This is pulling more NATO countries into the conflict’s orbit as the US uses allied territory for operations.
Sources: Euronews
What to watch: Whether Trump’s nuclear-deal-for-normalization gambit with Saudi Arabia actually moves forward, and if Iran escalates further after the latest US threats.